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NEW PNS ELECTED COUNCIL TAKES OATH

Elected Council of Pakistan Nuclear Society was inducted into office on April 17, 2002 at Islamabad in a solemn and simple ceremony. The oath was administered by a Senior fellow PNS member and its ex-president Dr. N.M. Butt. Speaking on the occasion, the outgoing president, Dr. Nisar Ahmed, S.I. highlighted the contributions made by the previous Council towards promotion of Nuclear Science & Technology and for the benefit of the members. He made a special mention of enhancement of Society’s membership and of holding of functions/activities which promoted cohesion and brotherhood among the members.

Dr. N.M. Butt in his address urged the Council for carrying forward the good work done by predecessors to newer heights. He offered his own services for the cause of the Society.

Dr. Masud Ahmed, Member Physical Sciences, PAEC called for a better coordination and a harmonized working in order to achieve the objective consolidating a Scientific Community which thinks in unison, so that, it can play its due role effectively. The incoming president Dr. I.H. Qureshi thanked the members for reposing confidence in the new Council members and pledged to work in pursuit of the aims and objectives of the society.

Although the energy and electricity demand in Pakistan have been steadily growing, the per capita electricity consumption at around 300 kWh is still quite small when compared with most countries. The current installed capacity in the country is a little over 18,000 MW with fossil fuels providing nearly two-third of this capacity, hydro about one-third, and nuclear a small 2.6%. A major fraction of the oil used in Pakistan has to be imported while hydro remains subject to seasonal changes and may not always be available. Two nuclear power plants (KANUPP, a 137 Mwe.

CANDU which has now been operating safely for nearly three decades, and CHASNUPP, the newly built 325 MWe PWR supplied by China) are already on-line and doing their part in meeting the country’s energy requirements.

As is well known, electricity demand growth is closely linked with economic growth. A study carried out by the Planning and Development Division, Government of Pakistan to project economic growth based on plausible future growth rates gives the following historical and projected electricity requirements.

Projected National Peak and Generation Demand

	1980	1990	2001	2011	2020
Peak Demand (MW)	2,520	6,670	11,205	20,924	38,000-43,000
Generation Demand (TWh)	15.0	37.7	67.5	118.2	230-260

Ten-Year Perspective Development Plan 2001-11, Planning and Development Division, Government of Pakistan, September 2001.

According to this study, the installed capacity requirements in the year 2020 (corresponding to lower demand scenario, with 15% reserve margin) will be about 44,000 MW. The installed capacity likely to be based on indigenous energy resources will be about 32,000 MW (Hydro: 15,000 MW, Coal: 10,000 MW and Gas: 7,000 MW). The remaining gap of 12,000 MW will have to be filled by import of electricity or electricity generation based on imported fuel. The reliance on import can only be minimized through a systematic development of the nuclear sector.

In addition to meeting the deficit between the overall energy demand and the energy supply based on indigenous resources, the nuclear has the advantage that it does not add to the pollution which is already on the rise, and will increase further as the economy grows. Further, in the arid and semi-arid regions in which Pakistan lies, water is a scarce commodity. The potential for application of nuclear technology to desalination is significant. A number of studies have been carried out in the past all over the world to investigate the possibility of using nuclear generated heat for the purpose of desalting seawater. The possibility of nuclear desalination adds a new dimension to the nuclear power program.

The nuclear power development has been the responsibility of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC). Pakistan was among the first few developing countries to enter the field of nuclear power generation when KANUPP was commissioned. Unfortunately, nuclear power in the country did not prosper as well as it should have due to international constraints, want of financial resources, and lack of infrastructure support. Even KANUPP had to be operated without any vendor support as a consequence of the embargoes. However, the situation has improved as a result of many years of sustained and rigorous effort made by the PAEC to increase self-reliance in the area of nuclear. The safe operation of KANUPP without much outside support and the successful commissioning of CHASNUPP have also added to the confidence. During the last two decades, Pakistan has systematically developed an indigenous capability in the areas of design & engineering, civil works, equipment manufacturing, nuclear fuel cycle, and manpower development. With increase in the local capability, it is intended to shift gradually from a turnkey or two-package approach to multiple package contracts for subsequent plants. The long-term plan aims at further developing the local capability in close co-operation with supplier countries leading progressively to increasing the indigenous contribution.

Currently, the PAEC is focusing on extending KANUPP’s operation beyond the 30‑year design life. Activities are underway to meet the relicensing requirements and obtain renewal of KANUPP’s operating license from Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority (PNRA). In the mean time, pre-project studies have been initiated to install another nuclear power plant at the CHASNUPP site. This plant (C-2) will be a 300 MWe PWR like CHASNUPP (C-1) but will have a larger indigenous contribution. Beyond C-2, there is the likelihood of building another plant (K-2) near KANUPP. The size of that plant is under study. Once a better indigenous capability is developed, other plants of larger size (600 MWe) may be built.

The country is, therefore, well poised to take further initiative in the area of nuclear power program. It must, however, be understood that the national energy policy though derived from local conditions is very much guided and constrained by international considerations. Increased awareness of pollution caused by fossil fuels leading to commitments like the Kyoto Conference protocol on global CO2 emission has provided a much needed boost to the nuclear industry at the international level. Pakistan must capitalize on whatever opportunity comes her way.

In summary, future energy projections point to a serious electrical energy generation shortfall even when the contribution from indigenous gas, coal, and hydro is increased optimistically. It is estimated that a deficit of some 12000 MW may have to be met from imports or an alternate energy resource like nuclear. As a result of the experience gained in the operation and maintenance of KANUPP without any vendor support; planning, contracting and participation in the design of CHASNUPP, and development of associated infrastructure as well as trained manpower over the years, Pakistan is now at a stage where it is capable of sustaining a modest nuclear power program. However, development of nuclear power would continue to require proper planning, foresight, self-confidence, and above all the determination to make economic progress.

1. Dr. I.H. Qureshi, President, Scientist Emeritus, PINSTECH, Ph: 051-2207254

2. Mr. S.D. Orfi, Vice President, Head, Health Physics Division, PINSTECH, Ph: 051-2207262

3. Mr. Muhammad Ijaz, Secretary, Director (SI&PR), PAEC HQ, Islamabad, Ph: 051/9206384

4. Mr. Ibrar Ahmed Sheikh, Treasurer, P.S.O, DNFC, Islamabad, Ph: 051-9205600

5. Mr. Waqar Murtaza Butt, Council Member, Deputy Plant Manager (Engineering), Ph: 021-9202222

6. Mr. Mubashir Ahmed, Council Member ,Principal Engineer, NESCOM, P.O. Box 2801, Islamabad, Ph: 051-90144

7. Mr. Qamar-ul-Zaman, Council Member, S.S.O. NPD, PINSTECH, Ph: 051-9290231

8. Dr. Shafiq Ahmad Mujahid, PSO, RPD, PINSTECH, Ph: 051-9290231

9. Mr. Shoaib Akhtar, SSO, DRE, Bidnupp Building, PAEC HQ Ph: 051-9205600 ext. 2226

Invitation

PNS Annual Dinner

The Council of Pakistan Nuclear Society is pleased to invite its members on annual dinner of the Society being arranged at 08:00 p.m. on May 18, 2002 at Holiday Inn Islamabad Hotel, Islamabad. The dinner will be followed by a light entertainment.

The highlights of the event will be the award of Fellowships of Pakistan Nuclear Society to the members having outstanding contributions in the Field of Nuclear Science & Technology. Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, N.I. Special Advisor to the President has very kindly consented to be the Chief Guest.

The approximate cost of dinner per person is Rs. 500/-. The following token subscription will be charged as registration from members and the remaining amount will be borne by PNS

Single Member = Rs. 150/-

Couple = Rs. 300/-

Members are requested to participate in the event; a gathering of like-minded people. As the printing/publication of invitation cards requires a big expenditure which has to be incurred from the already meagre collective ownership of the members, therefore, in the interest of austerity, please accept the invitation through this letter.

Last date of registration is May 16, 2002 for which any Council member or Secretary can be contacted

The most nagging complaint which the members have with the PNS Executive Council is the non-receipt of communications like NewsLetter, greetings and invitations.

The fact of the matter is that this correspondence is directed at the age old address which we happen to maintain. Members have since upgraded their designation and changed their posting/address many times. We appeal to those members who happen to receive this letter to please remind others around to dispatch their latest contact point along with phone number at e-mail: sipr@dgcc.org.pk

Secretary, PNS/Director (SI&PR)
P.O. Box # 1114
Islamabad
Phone: 9206384
E-mail: sipr@paec.gov.pk & mijaz@paec.gov.pk

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		PAKISTAN NUCLEAR SOCIETY
	Vol.10,No.4 Nov. 2001-May,2002